Ten years ago they were very concerned

“Ten years ago they were very concerned about maintaining market share in Europe and the U.S. This was a high foreign policy goal” for Saudi Arabia,
Chatham House’s Marcel said. “That’s no longer as important.”

Nonetheless, the U.S. realizes Saudi Arabia’s continuing role as the only major oil producer with spare capacity, allowing it to increase supply in the face
of supply disruptions such as the Libyan revolution that overthrew Muammar Qaddafi in 2011, said Mike Wittner, the head of oil market research at Societe
Generale SA in New York.

The kingdom has the capacity to produce an additional 3 million barrels of crude a day, or just over 3 percent of global demand, according to data compiled
by Bloomberg.

“The Saudis will always play a key role,” Wittner said. “They are the only ones with spare capacity and the ability to increase it and willingness to cut
when necessary.”

Dakota’s Bakken
 The U.S. may still need Saudi Arabia’s oil in the long term if its domestic shale oil boom peters out, according to the Paris-based International Energy
Agency. U.S. oil production is projected to level off and then slowly decline after 2020. The IEA estimates 2,500 new wells a year are needed to sustain
output of 1 million barrels a day in North Dakota’s Bakken Shale.

In the meantime, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have a chance to reset their relationship after friction over Iran and Syria, said Ayham Kamel, director for
Middle East and Africa at Eurasia Group in New York.
 “U.S. energy independence won’t signal withdrawal from the Gulf region, but a reassessment of priorities instead,” Kamel said. “Obama’s visit is a
golden opportunity for Saudi officials to discuss a re-framing of their partnership. This would stop the deterioration in the relationship.”